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Posted by on Feb 10, 2017

Men from Modo #18 – You Mulligan Too Much

Men from Modo #18 – You Mulligan Too Much

David Savill & Travis Sowers chat about Aether Revolt limited, and then go deep on mulligan decisions. When should you mulligan in limited? It might be less often than you think.

You can find us on Twitter at:

@dsavillian – David Savill
@Semulin – Travis Sowers

You can find us on Twitch at:

dsavillian – David Savill
Semulin – Travis Sowers

  • Mike Hartman

    Dear Travis,

    I am listening to your podcast “You Mulligan too much.” I agree in general, however, there is something you might be missing. I watch your Youtube Drafts frequently. It occurs to me that you may make constructed videos, but I am coming at this from the POV of a drafter.

    You look at the Meta Data. 50% to win if you don’t mulligan, mid 30% if you do…

    One thing you might have over-looked. Suppose I am a noob, and I draft wayyy to many 5 drops. I build my deck. I draw my cards. Hand doesn’t look good. I mulligan. I keep whatever because I am afraid to lose two cards. I lose.

    Some people build bad decks. Bad decks get far fewer snap keeps. Bad decks get more unplayable hands. Therefore bad decks mulligan more. They also lose more.

    Conversely, good players draft and build good decks more often. They read the singnals better and find the open lanes more often. Good players build good mana bases, and mulligan less often. And, obviously, good players win more.

    These two things affect your statistics in a way that is impossible to measure.

    Even on the Pro Tour. Part of Magic is luck or variance. If a player drafts P1P1 bomb, and gets cut off, and maybe even gets cut off again. It threatens to become a train wreck but he is a pro so he rallies and goes with it, making a deck that sacrifices consistancy for power-level, splashing colors maybe. That player will probably mull more, and even lose more, but he got a little unlucky in the draft portion.

    Still, point taken. We probably mull too often.

    I think there is another point, too. It is important to aim to build decks that won’t often want to mulligan.

    My greatest MTG exepreience so far was a top 8 at a local AER Sealed PPTQ. My bombs were the 7 drop Angel who restores your life total, the 5 Drop Aeronaught, two Audora Express, 4 Audatious Infultrators, 1 AetherGeode Miner, 2 Convictions, 3 removal spells? I was nearly mono-white, splashing for a Rallier and a Prey Upon? Becasue of the 7 drop, I played 18 lands and a map. As a result I never had to mulligan a single time. I never cast the angel once because the games didn’t last that long. The deck felt very vanillia, but it just won. MVP was the ever-present 3/1 with Conviction turn 3. I love MTG.

    Anyway, I am still working on consistantly building good decks.

    I loved when you talked through the mull or not scenerios. Loved the layers of contributing factors. Liked the math. I wouldn’t be mad if you hit that a few more times, talking about the combat math.

    Anyway thanks for your content! I frequently watch your drafts. This was the first podcast (of yours) I listened to, and it won’t be the last. I mostly download from iTunes, but I sought out the podcast after you mentioned it on one of your videos.

    Anway, I am a big fan,

    Peace,
    Mike Hartman